10 citations · 29 across the 14 of their papers we have counts for
14 papers
Position: agentic AI orchestration should be Bayes-consistent
Theodore Papamarkou, Pierre Alquier, Matthias Bauer +27
LLMs excel at predictive tasks and complex reasoning tasks, but many high-value deployments rely on decisions under uncertainty, for example, which tool to call, which expert to co…
ReDAct: Uncertainty-Aware Deferral for LLM Agents
Dzianis Piatrashyn, Nikita Kotelevskii, Kirill Grishchenkov +7
Recently, LLM-based agents have become increasingly popular across many applications, including complex sequential decision-making problems. However, they inherit the tendency of L…
Uncertainty Quantification for Regression using Proper Scoring Rules
Alexander Fishkov, Kajetan Schweighofer, Mykyta Ielanskyi +3
Quantifying uncertainty of machine learning model predictions is essential for reliable decision-making, especially in safety-critical applications. Recently, uncertainty quantific…
Neural Optimal Transport Meets Multivariate Conformal Prediction
Vladimir Kondratyev, Alexander Fishkov, Nikita Kotelevskii +4
We propose a framework for conditional vector quantile regression (CVQR) that combines neural optimal transport with amortized optimization, and apply it to multivariate conformal…
Multidimensional Uncertainty Quantification via Optimal Transport
Nikita Kotelevskii, Maiya Goloburda, Vladimir Kondratyev +4
Most uncertainty quantification (UQ) approaches provide a single scalar value as a measure of model reliability. However, different uncertainty measures could provide complementary…
Who to Trust? Aggregating Client Predictions in Federated Distillation
Viktor Kovalchuk, Denis Son, Arman Bolatov +6
Under data heterogeneity (e.g., ), clients may produce unreliable predictions for instances belonging to unfamiliar classes. An equally weighted combinatio…
Adaptive Cumulative Mass Calibration with Conformal Prediction
Daniil Kazantsev, Eric Moulines, Maxim Panov +2
Reliable probability estimates by classifiers are essential in high-risk applications. In practice, however, predicted probabilities are often miscalibrated, and many existing post…
From Risk to Uncertainty: Generating Predictive Uncertainty Measures via Bayesian Estimation
Nikita Kotelevskii, Vladimir Kondratyev, Martin Takáč +2
There are various measures of predictive uncertainty in the literature, but their relationships to each other remain unclear. This paper uses a decomposition of statistical pointwi…
Dirichlet-based Uncertainty Quantification for Personalized Federated Learning with Improved Posterior Networks
Nikita Kotelevskii, Samuel Horváth, Karthik Nandakumar +2
In modern federated learning, one of the main challenges is to account for inherent heterogeneity and the diverse nature of data distributions for different clients. This problem i…
Efficient Conformal Prediction under Data Heterogeneity
Vincent Plassier, Nikita Kotelevskii, Aleksandr Rubashevskii +7
Conformal Prediction (CP) stands out as a robust framework for uncertainty quantification, which is crucial for ensuring the reliability of predictions. However, common CP methods…
FedPop: A Bayesian Approach for Personalised Federated Learning
Nikita Kotelevskii, Maxime Vono, Eric Moulines +1
Personalised federated learning (FL) aims at collaboratively learning a machine learning model taylored for each client. Albeit promising advances have been made in this direction,…
Nonparametric Uncertainty Quantification for Single Deterministic Neural Network
Nikita Kotelevskii, Aleksandr Artemenkov, Kirill Fedyanin +6
This paper proposes a fast and scalable method for uncertainty quantification of machine learning models' predictions. First, we show the principled way to measure the uncertainty…
Monte Carlo Variational Auto-Encoders
Achille Thin, Nikita Kotelevskii, Arnaud Doucet +3
Variational auto-encoders (VAE) are popular deep latent variable models which are trained by maximizing an Evidence Lower Bound (ELBO). To obtain tighter ELBO and hence better vari…
MetFlow: A New Efficient Method for Bridging the Gap between Markov Chain Monte Carlo and Variational Inference
Achille Thin, Nikita Kotelevskii, Jean-Stanislas Denain +4
In this contribution, we propose a new computationally efficient method to combine Variational Inference (VI) with Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). This approach can be used with g…