5 papers
Forecasting Inflation with Microdata: An Adaptive Machine Learning Approach
Catherine Chen, Chen Gao, Jonathon Hazell +2
Does microeconomic heterogeneity help to forecast aggregate inflation in a non-stationary environment? We develop a scan test for whether one forecast outperforms another, over an…
Adversarially Robust Control of Conditional Value-at-Risk via Rockafellar-Uryasev Conformal Inference
Catherine Chen, Jingyan Shen, Zhun Deng +1
We present an online, distribution-free framework for controlling the Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR), extending conformal tail risk control to non-stationary and adversarial envi…
When Should Humans Step In? Optimal Human Dispatching in AI-Assisted Decisions
Lezhi Tan, Naomi Sagan, Lihua Lei +1
AI systems increasingly assist human decision making by producing preliminary assessments of complex inputs. However, such AI-generated assessments can often be noisy or systematic…
Statistical Inference under Performativity
Xiang Li, Yunai Li, Huiying Zhong +2
Performativity of predictions refers to the phenomenon where prediction-informed decisions influence the very targets they aim to predict -- a dynamic commonly observed in policy-m…
Conformal Tail Risk Control for Large Language Model Alignment
Catherine Yu-Chi Chen, Jingyan Shen, Zhun Deng +1
Recent developments in large language models (LLMs) have led to their widespread usage for various tasks. The prevalence of LLMs in society implores the assurance on the reliabilit…