5 papers
Topological Percolation in Urban Dengue Transmission: A Multi-Scale Analysis of Spatial Connectivity
Marcílio Ferreira dos Santos, Cleiton de Lima Ricardo
We investigate the spatial organization of dengue cases in the city of Recife, Brazil, from 2015 to 2024, using tools from statistical physics and topological data analysis. Report…
Correlation-Weighted Communicability Curvature as a Structural Driver of Dengue Spread: A Bayesian Spatial Analysis of Recife (2015-2024)
Marcílio Ferreira dos Santos, Cleiton de Lima Ricardo, Andreza dos Santos Rodrigues de Melo
We investigate whether the structural connectivity of urban road networks helps explain dengue incidence in Recife, Brazil (2015--2024). For each neighborhood, we compute the avera…
Urban Dengue and Spatial Dependence: A SAR Model Incorporating Favela Data in Recife, Brazil
Marcílio Ferreira dos Santos, Andreza dos Santos Rodrigues de Melo
In this study, we used a dataset of approximately 96,000 reported dengue cases from 2015 to 2024 in Recife, the capital of northeastern Brazil, all geocoded by neighborhood. The da…
Urban Structure Predicts a Persistent Place-Based Spatial Signature of Dengue Susceptibility Across Epidemic Conditions
Marcílio Ferreira dos Santos, Cleiton de Lima Ricardo, Andreza dos Santos Rodrigues de Melo +2
Urban structure alone consistently recovered the relative spatial distribution of dengue susceptibility in unseen years, with year-specific Spearman correlations ranging from 0.49…
Deterministic Critical Community Size For The SIR System and Viral Strain Selection
Marcilio Ferreira dos Santos, Cesar Castilho
In this paper the concept of Critical Community Size (CCS) for the deterministic SIR model is introduced and its consequences for the disease dynamics are stressed. The disease can…