60 citations · 85 across the 4 of their papers we have counts for
5 papers · 1 filter
Calculation of Epidemic First Passage and Peak Time Probability Distributions
Jacob Curran-Sebastian, Lorenzo Pellis, Ian Hall +1
Understanding the timing of the peak of a disease outbreak forms an important part of epidemic forecasting. In many cases, such information is essential for planning increased hosp…
Modelling the impact of repeat asymptomatic testing policies for staff on SARS-CoV-2 transmission potential
Carl A Whitfield, University of Manchester COVID-19 Modelling Group, Ian Hall
Repeat asymptomatic testing in order to identify and quarantine infectious individuals has become a widely-used intervention to control SARS-CoV-2 transmission. In some workplaces,…
EpiBeds: Data informed modelling of the COVID-19 hospital burden in England
Christopher E. Overton, Lorenzo Pellis, Helena B. Stage +9
The first year of the COVID-19 pandemic put considerable strain on the national healthcare system in England. In order to predict the effect of the local epidemic on hospital capac…
Using statistics and mathematical modelling to understand infectious disease outbreaks: COVID-19 as an example
Christopher E. Overton, Helena B. Stage, Shazaad Ahmad +16
During an infectious disease outbreak, biases in the data and complexities of the underlying dynamics pose significant challenges in mathematically modelling the outbreak and desig…
Challenges in control of Covid-19: short doubling time and long delay to effect of interventions
Lorenzo Pellis, Francesca Scarabel, Helena B. Stage +14
Early assessments of the spreading rate of COVID-19 were subject to significant uncertainty, as expected with limited data and difficulties in case ascertainment, but more reliable…