6 papers
Novel models of trait evolution via an expansion of Lande's fitness function: The Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process meets the Little Prince's boa
Jose M Ponciano, Claire Godineau, Laura Jimenez +3
Adaptive topographies form the foundation for much of our understanding of evolutionary change. Lande's 1976 influential paper on the adaptive topography of phenotypes demonstrated…
Evidential Analysis: An Alternative to Hypothesis Testing in Normal Linear Models
Brian Dennis, Mark L Taper, José M Ponciano
Statistical hypothesis testing, as formalized by 20th Century statisticians and taught in college statistics courses, has been a cornerstone of 100 years of scientific progress. Ne…
COVID-19 Regional Waves and Spread Risk Assessment through the Analysis of the Initial Outbreak in Guatemala
Juan Adolfo Ponciano, Juan Diego Chang, Mariela Abdalah +2
The initial surge of the COVID-19 pandemic hit Guatemala on March 2020. On a country scale, the epidemic has undergone a fairly well-known and distinguishable initial phase, reachi…
Poverty levels, societal and individual heterogeneities explain the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic growth in Latin America
José Miguel Ponciano, Juan Adolfo Ponciano, Juan Pablo Gómez +2
Latin America is experiencing severe impacts of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, but poverty and weak public health institutions hamper gathering the kind of refined data needed to inform…
Assessing the global and local uncertainty in scientific evidence in the presence of model misspecification
Mark L. Taper, Subhash R Lele, José-Miguel Ponciano +2
Scientists need to compare the support for models based on observed phenomena. The main goal of the evidential paradigm is to quantify the strength of evidence in the data for a re…
Multi-model inference through projections in model space
Jose-Miguel Ponciano, Mark L Taper
Information criteria have had a profound impact on modern ecological science. They allow researchers to estimate which probabilistic approximating models are closest to the generat…