23 citations · 53 across the 7 of their papers we have counts for
7 papers
Text as data: a machine learning-based approach to measuring uncertainty
Rickard Nyman, Paul Ormerod
The Economic Policy Uncertainty index had gained considerable traction with both academics and policy practitioners. Here, we analyse news feed data to construct a simple, general…
Text as Data: Real-time Measurement of Economic Welfare
Rickard Nyman, Paul Ormerod
Economists are showing increasing interest in the use of text as an input to economic research. Here, we analyse online text to construct a real time metric of welfare. For purpose…
Understanding the Great Recession Using Machine Learning Algorithms
Rickard Nyman, Paul Ormerod
Nyman and Ormerod (2017) show that the machine learning technique of random forests has the potential to give early warning of recessions. Applying the approach to a small set of f…
Predicting Economic Recessions Using Machine Learning Algorithms
Rickard Nyman, Paul Ormerod
Even at the beginning of 2008, the economic recession of 2008/09 was not being predicted. The failure to predict recessions is a persistent theme in economic forecasting. The Surve…
Measuring Financial Sentiment to Predict Financial Instability: A New Approach based on Text Analysis
Paul Ormerod, Rickard Nyman, David Tuckett
Following the financial crisis of the late 2000s, policy makers have shown considerable interest in monitoring financial stability. Several central banks now publish indices of fin…
Nowcasting economic and social data: when and why search engine data fails, an illustration using Google Flu Trends
Paul Ormerod, Rickard Nyman, R Alexander Bentley
Obtaining an accurate picture of the current state of the economy is particularly important to central banks and finance ministries, and of epidemics to health ministries. There is…