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q-fin.RM2026
Optimal Transport for Actuarial Science
Arthur Charpentier
These lecture notes introduce optimal transport as a mathematical language for actuarial science. They treat losses, premiums, scores, reserves, capital scenarios, climate losses a…
stat.AP2026
From Risk Prediction to Risk Mechanisms: A Multi-Resolution Causal Representation for Road Safety and Motor Insurance
Arthur Charpentier
Operational risk models can estimate event frequencies precisely while leaving the underlying mechanisms weakly resolved. We study this resolution mismatch using motor insurance an…
stat.AP2026
Beyond Zipf's Law: Equifinality and Mechanistic Inference from Scaling Laws
Arthur Charpentier
Scaling laws summarize complex systems through low-dimensional regularities, but the same marginal law can arise from different stochastic dynamics. We examine this ambiguity for Z…