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math.DS2026
From trends to optimized forecasts: Quantifying the skill and advancing the utility of dynamics-based early warnings for tipping events
Franco Du Plessis, Victoria Volodina, Chris A. Boulton +5
In this paper we explore and extend the state of the art for understanding the skill and utility of early warnings of critical transitions (tipping points) in forced nonlinear syst…
math.DS2026
Evaluating the skill of a geometric early warning for tipping in a rapidly forced nonlinear system
Paul D. L. Ritchie, Sneha Kachhara, Peter Ashwin
The future behavioural fate of a forced nonlinear system can depend sensitively on the forcing profile as well as natural fluctuations within the system. This is especially the cas…