138 citations · 317 across the 7 of their papers we have counts for
7 papers
A stochastic household model for vector-borne diseases
Andrew Black, Andrew Smith, Alun Lloyd +1
We introduce a stochastic household model for vector-borne diseases, in particular as relevant to prominent vectors belonging to the Aedes genus and hence the Zika, chikungunya, an…
Key Questions for Modelling COVID-19 Exit Strategies
Robin N Thompson, T Deirdre Hollingsworth, Valerie Isham +40
Combinations of intense non-pharmaceutical interventions ('lockdowns') were introduced in countries worldwide to reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Many governments have begun to impl…
Gene drive dynamics in natural populations: The importance of density-dependence, space and sex
Sumit Dhole, Alun L Lloyd, Fred Gould
The spread of synthetic gene drives is often discussed in the context of panmictic populations connected by gene flow and described with simple deterministic models. Under such ass…
The Estimation of the Effective Reproductive Number from Disease Outbreak Data
Ariel Cintrón-Arias, Carlos Castillo-Chávez, Luís M. A. Bettencourt +2
We consider a single outbreak susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model and corresponding estimation procedures for the effective reproductive number . We discuss…
An approach to periodic, time-varying parameter estimation using nonlinear filtering
Andrea Arnold, Alun L. Lloyd
Many systems arising in biological applications are subject to periodic forcing. In these systems the forcing parameter is not only time-varying but also known to have a periodic s…
Hybrid modeling and prediction of dynamical systems
Franz Hamilton, Alun Lloyd, Kevin Flores
Scientific analysis often relies on the ability to make accurate predictions of a system's dynamics. Mechanistic models, parameterized by a number of unknown parameters, are often…