55 citations · 293 across the 29 of their papers we have counts for
5 papers · 1 filter
System Fitness and the Extinction Patterns of Firms under Pure Economic Competition
P Ormerod, H Johns
The relationships which characterise the outcomes of the interactions between firms in the economy appear to follow power law behaviour. In particular, there is evidence that the e…
The Convergence of European Business Cycles 1978-2000
P Ormerod, C Mounfield
The degree of convergence of the business cycles of the economies of the European Union is a key policy issue. In particular, a substantial degree of convergence is needed if the E…
Assessing the Predictability of Social and Economic Time-Series Data: the example of crime in the UK
Paul Ormerod, Laurence Smith
Policy targets are being set increasingly for social and economic variables in the UK. This approach requires that reasonably successful ex ante forecasts can be made. We propose a…
Power Law Distribution of the Duration and Magnitude of Recessions in Capitalist Economies : Breakdown of Scaling
P Ormerod, C Mounfield
Power law distributions of macroscopic observables are ubiquitous in both the natural and social sciences. They are indicative of correlated, cooperative phenomena between groups o…
Random Matrix Theory and the Failure of Macroeconomic Forecasts
P Ormerod, C Mounfield
By scientific standards, the accuracy of short-term economic forecasts has been poor, and shows no sign of improving over time. We form a delay matrix of time-series data on the ov…