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stat.ME2026
Uncertainty quantification for expectation-calibrated predictions
Georgios Gavrilopoulos, Johanna Ziegel
The existing literature on model calibration focuses mainly on classification and probabilistic prediction. In this work, we address calibrated point predictions for the conditiona…
math.ST2026
Matrix asymptotic calculus for plug-in maximum likelihood estimators in finite Markov chains
Georgios Gavrilopoulos, Samis Trevezas, Irene Votsi
In this work, we develop a unified matrix-level asymptotic calculus for plug-in non-parametric maximum likelihood estimators in finite Markov models. Starting from the asymptotic d…