86 citations · 345 across the 15 of their papers we have counts for
15 papers
An Agent-Based Model Framework for Utility-Based Cryptoeconomies
Kiran Karra, Tom Mellan, Maria Silva +3
In this paper, we outline a framework for modeling utility-based blockchain-enabled economic systems using Agent Based Modeling (ABM). Our approach is to model the supply dynamics…
A comparison of short-term probabilistic forecasts for the incidence of COVID-19 using mechanistic and statistical time series models
Nicolas Banholzer, Thomas Mellan, H Juliette T Unwin +3
Short-term forecasts of infectious disease spread are a critical component in risk evaluation and public health decision making. While different models for short-term forecasting h…
Unifying incidence and prevalence under a time-varying general branching process
Mikko S. Pakkanen, Xenia Miscouridou, Matthew J. Penn +5
Renewal equations are a popular approach used in modelling the number of new infections, i.e., incidence, in an outbreak. We develop a stochastic model of an outbreak based on a ti…
Gaussian Process Nowcasting: Application to COVID-19 Mortality Reporting
Iwona Hawryluk, Henrique Hoeltgebaum, Swapnil Mishra +7
Updating observations of a signal due to the delays in the measurement process is a common problem in signal processing, with prominent examples in a wide range of fields. An impor…
Referenced Thermodynamic Integration for Bayesian Model Selection: Application to COVID-19 Model Selection
Iwona Hawryluk, Swapnil Mishra, Seth Flaxman +2
Model selection is a fundamental part of the applied Bayesian statistical methodology. Metrics such as the Akaike Information Criterion are commonly used in practice to select mode…
Inference of COVID-19 epidemiological distributions from Brazilian hospital data
Iwona Hawryluk, Thomas A. Mellan, Henrique H. Hoeltgebaum +8
Knowing COVID-19 epidemiological distributions, such as the time from patient admission to death, is directly relevant to effective primary and secondary care planning, and moreove…
A unified machine learning approach to time series forecasting applied to demand at emergency departments
Michaela A. C. Vollmer, Ben Glampson, Thomas A. Mellan +7
There were 25.6 million attendances at Emergency Departments (EDs) in England in 2019 corresponding to an increase of 12 million attendances over the past ten years. The steadily r…
On the derivation of the renewal equation from an age-dependent branching process: an epidemic modelling perspective
Swapnil Mishra, Tresnia Berah, Thomas A. Mellan +6
Renewal processes are a popular approach used in modelling infectious disease outbreaks. In a renewal process, previous infections give rise to future infections. However, while th…
Estimating the number of infections and the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in European countries: technical description update
Seth Flaxman, Swapnil Mishra, Axel Gandy +20
Following the emergence of a novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) and its spread outside of China, Europe has experienced large epidemics. In response, many European countries have imple…
A fast anharmonic free energy method with an application to vacancies in ZrC
Thomas A. Mellan, Andrew I. Duff, Blazej Grabowski +1
We propose an approach to calculate the anharmonic part of the volumetric-strain and temperature dependent free energy of a crystal. The method strikes an effective balance between…
Electron and phonon interactions and transport in ultra-high-temperature ceramic ZrC
Thomas A. Mellan, Alex Aziz, Yi Xia +2
We have simulated the ultra-high-temperature ceramic zirconium carbide (ZrC) in order to predict electron and phonon scattering properties, including lifetimes and transport. Our p…
Spontaneous Frenkel pair formation in Zirconium Carbide
Thomas A. Mellan, Andrew I. Duff, Michael W. Finnis
With density functional theory we have performed molecular dynamics simulations of ZrC which displayed spontaneous Frenkel pair formation at a temperature of 3200 K, some 500 K bel…
The origin of the vanadium dioxide transition entropy
Thomas Ambrose Mellan, Hao Wang, Udo Schwingenschlögl +1
The reversible metal-insulator transition in VO at K has been closely scrutinized yet its thermodynamic origin remains ambiguous. We discuss the origin…
The importance of anisotropic Coulomb interaction in LaMnO
Thomas A. Mellan, Furio Cora, Ricardo Grau-Crespo +1
In low-temperature anti-ferromagnetic LaMnO, strong and localized electronic interactions among Mn 3d electrons prevent a satisfactory description from standard local density…
Density functional theory study of rutile VO2 surfaces
Thomas A. Mellan, Ricardo Grau-Crespo
We present the results of a density functional theory (DFT) investigation of the surfaces of rutile-like vanadium dioxide, VO2(R). We calculate the surface energies of low Miller i…