144 citations · 524 across the 36 of their papers we have counts for
8 papers · 1 filter
Semi-Mechanistic Bayesian Modeling of COVID-19 with Renewal Processes
Samir Bhatt, Neil Ferguson, Seth Flaxman +3
We propose a general Bayesian approach to modeling epidemics such as COVID-19. The approach grew out of specific analyses conducted during the pandemic, in particular an analysis c…
Importance subsampling for power system planning under multi-year demand and weather uncertainty
Adriaan P Hilbers, David J Brayshaw, Axel Gandy
This paper introduces a generalised version of importance subsampling for time series reduction/aggregation in optimisation-based power system planning models. Recent studies indic…
Inference of COVID-19 epidemiological distributions from Brazilian hospital data
Iwona Hawryluk, Thomas A. Mellan, Henrique H. Hoeltgebaum +8
Knowing COVID-19 epidemiological distributions, such as the time from patient admission to death, is directly relevant to effective primary and secondary care planning, and moreove…
On the derivation of the renewal equation from an age-dependent branching process: an epidemic modelling perspective
Swapnil Mishra, Tresnia Berah, Thomas A. Mellan +6
Renewal processes are a popular approach used in modelling infectious disease outbreaks. In a renewal process, previous infections give rise to future infections. However, while th…
BART-based inference for Poisson processes
Stamatina Lamprinakou, Mauricio Barahona, Seth Flaxman +3
The effectiveness of Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) has been demonstrated in a variety of contexts including non-parametric regression and classification. A BART scheme…
Estimating the number of infections and the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in European countries: technical description update
Seth Flaxman, Swapnil Mishra, Axel Gandy +20
Following the emergence of a novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) and its spread outside of China, Europe has experienced large epidemics. In response, many European countries have imple…