84 citations · 181 across the 11 of their papers we have counts for
6 papers · 1 filter
Reducing climate risk in energy system planning: a posteriori time series aggregation for models with storage
Adriaan P Hilbers, David J Brayshaw, Axel Gandy
The growth in variable renewables such as solar and wind is increasing the impact of climate uncertainty in energy system planning. Addressing this ideally requires high-resolution…
Semi-Mechanistic Bayesian Modeling of COVID-19 with Renewal Processes
Samir Bhatt, Neil Ferguson, Seth Flaxman +3
We propose a general Bayesian approach to modeling epidemics such as COVID-19. The approach grew out of specific analyses conducted during the pandemic, in particular an analysis c…
Importance subsampling for power system planning under multi-year demand and weather uncertainty
Adriaan P Hilbers, David J Brayshaw, Axel Gandy
This paper introduces a generalised version of importance subsampling for time series reduction/aggregation in optimisation-based power system planning models. Recent studies indic…
Estimating the number of infections and the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in European countries: technical description update
Seth Flaxman, Swapnil Mishra, Axel Gandy +20
Following the emergence of a novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) and its spread outside of China, Europe has experienced large epidemics. In response, many European countries have imple…
Efficient quantification of the impact of demand and weather uncertainty in power system models
Adriaan P Hilbers, David J Brayshaw, Axel Gandy
This paper introduces a new approach to quantify the impact of forward propagated demand and weather uncertainty on power system planning and operation models. Recent studies indic…
Importance subsampling: improving power system planning under climate-based uncertainty
Adriaan P Hilbers, David J Brayshaw, Axel Gandy
Recent studies indicate that the effects of inter-annual climate-based variability in power system planning are significant and that long samples of demand & weather data (spanning…