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stat.ME2025
Gaussian approximations for fast Bayesian inference of partially observed branching processes with applications to epidemiology
Angus Lewis, Antonio Parrella, John Maclean +1
We consider the problem of inference for the states and parameters of a continuous-time multitype branching process from partially observed time series data. Exact inference for th…
stat.ME2020
Bayesian estimation of trend components within Markovian regime-switching models for wholesale electricity prices: an application to the South Australian wholesale electricity market
Angus Lewis, Nigel Bean, Giang Nguyen
We discuss and extend methods for estimating Markovian-Regime-Switching (MRS) and trend models for wholesale electricity prices. We argue the existing methods of trend estimation u…
stat.ME2019
Estimation of Markovian-regime-switching models with independent regimes
Nigel Bean, Angus Lewis, Giang Nguyen
Markovian-regime-switching (MRS) models are commonly used for modelling economic time series, including electricity prices where independent regime models are used, since they can…