From the 1 of 5 linked papers with an AI index.
5 papers
Time preference effects in forecasting
Yannick Hoga, Niklas V. Lehmann
The paper examines how forecasters who prefer immediate rewards over future ones may bias their predictions about when uncertain events will happen, and shows empirical evidence th…
Surprisingly-early bias in forecasts for unscheduled events
Niklas V. Lehmann
When a dataset contains forecasts on unscheduled events, such as natural catastrophes, outcomes may be censored or ``hidden'' since some events have not yet occurred. This article…
Forecasting skill of a crowd-prediction platform: A comparison of exchange rate forecasts
Niklas Valentin Lehmann
Open online crowd-prediction platforms are increasingly used to forecast trends and complex events. Despite the large body of research on crowd-prediction and forecasting tournamen…
Mechanisms for belief elicitation without ground truth
Niklas Valentin Lehmann
This review article examines the challenge of eliciting truthful information from multiple individuals when such information cannot be verified, a problem known as information elic…
Smart treaties: A path to binding agreements in international relations?
Niklas Valentin Lehmann
Can we create binding agreements between nations? Recently, scholars have argued that blockchain technology enables us to do so. Given that this could greatly affect the anarchical…