works on
forecasting 1language model evaluation 1prediction markets 1retrieval-augmented generation 1temporal leakage 1

From the 1 of 1 linked paper with an AI index.

collaborators

1 paper

cs.CL2026

Hindcast: Replaying Prediction Markets to Evaluate LLM Forecasters

Xiao Ye, Jacob Dineen, Evan Zhu +3

The paper presents Hindcast, a framework that evaluates large language model forecasters by replaying resolved prediction markets using a frozen Reddit snapshot taken before each m…