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dependence uncertainty 1monotone treatment response 1optimal transport 1risk aggregation 1treatment effect 1

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20242026
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econ.EM2026

Probability of worthwhile effect of monotone-response treatments

Benjamin Côté, Ruodu Wang

The paper derives the best- and worst-case probabilities that a nonnegative (monotone) treatment effect exceeds a specified threshold when only marginal outcome distributions are k…