works on
base-rate bias 1benchmarking 1directional accuracy 1equity forecasting 1LoRA adaptation 1time series models 1

From the 1 of 1 linked paper with an AI index.

collaborators

1 paper

q-fin.ST2026

When Directional Accuracy Lies: A Base-Rate-Honest Benchmark for LoRA-Adapted TimesFM on Equity Forecasting

Taizhen Cheung

The paper introduces a reproducible benchmark to evaluate LoRA‑adapted TimesFM on equity price direction forecasting, showing that previously reported high directional accuracy is…