From the 1 of 4 linked papers with an AI index.
4 papers
Prices, Probabilities, and Parlays: Systematic Bias in Sports Prediction Markets
Niusha Moshrefi
The paper analyzes systematic biases in sports prediction market prices on Kalshi, showing that price calibration varies with time to expiry and that cross‑game parlays are consist…
APMM: Automated Parlay Market Maker
Niusha Moshrefi, Ranvir Rana, Pramod Viswanath
Parlays - joint contracts on the simultaneous resolution of several events - are among the most heavily traded products in betting markets, but prediction markets have struggled to…
ParlayMarket: Automated Market Making for Parlay-style Joint Contracts
Ranvir Rana, Viraj Nadkarni, Niusha Moshrefi +1
Prediction markets are powerful mechanisms for information aggregation, but existing designs are optimized for single-event contracts. Traders frequently express beliefs about join…
OML: A Primitive for Reconciling Open Access with Owner Control in AI Model Distribution
Zerui Cheng, Edoardo Contente, Ben Finch +9
The current paradigm of AI model distribution presents a fundamental dichotomy: models are either closed and API-gated, sacrificing transparency and local execution, or openly dist…