6 papers
Huge Ensembles Part I: Design of Ensemble Weather Forecasts using Spherical Fourier Neural Operators
Ankur Mahesh, William Collins, Boris Bonev +13
Studying low-likelihood high-impact extreme weather events in a warming world is a significant and challenging task for current ensemble forecasting systems. While these systems pr…
Huge Ensembles Part II: Properties of a Huge Ensemble of Hindcasts Generated with Spherical Fourier Neural Operators
Ankur Mahesh, William Collins, Boris Bonev +12
In Part I, we created an ensemble based on Spherical Fourier Neural Operators. As initial condition perturbations, we used bred vectors, and as model perturbations, we used multipl…
Generative Data Assimilation of Sparse Weather Station Observations at Kilometer Scales
Peter Manshausen, Yair Cohen, Peter Harrington +7
Data assimilation of observational data into full atmospheric states is essential for weather forecast model initialization. Recently, methods for deep generative data assimilation…
A Practical Probabilistic Benchmark for AI Weather Models
Noah D. Brenowitz, Yair Cohen, Jaideep Pathak +6
Since the weather is chaotic, forecasts aim to predict the distribution of future states rather than make a single prediction. Recently, multiple data driven weather models have em…
Modulated Adaptive Fourier Neural Operators for Temporal Interpolation of Weather Forecasts
Jussi Leinonen, Boris Bonev, Thorsten Kurth +1
Weather and climate data are often available at limited temporal resolution, either due to storage limitations, or in the case of weather forecast models based on deep learning, th…
Stochastic Flow Matching for Resolving Small-Scale Physics
Stathi Fotiadis, Noah Brenowitz, Tomas Geffner +4
Conditioning diffusion and flow models have proven effective for super-resolving small-scale details in natural images.However, in physical sciences such as weather, super-resolvin…