2 papers
cond-mat.dis-nn2025
Small-Coupling Dynamic Cavity: a Bayesian mean-field framework for epidemic inference
Alfredo Braunstein, Giovanni Catania, Luca Dall'Asta +3
We present the Small-Coupling Dynamic Cavity (SCDC) method, a novel generalized mean-field approximation for epidemic inference and risk assessment within a fully Bayesian framewor…
cond-mat.dis-nn2025
Evidence of Replica Symmetry Breaking under the Nishimori conditions in epidemic inference on graphs
Alfredo Braunstein, Louise Budzynski, Matteo Mariani +1
In Bayesian inference, computing the posterior distribution from the data is typically a non-trivial problem, which usually requires approximations such as mean-field approaches or…