2 papers
econ.EM2025
Scenario Synthesis and Macroeconomic Risk
Tobias Adrian, Domenico Giannone, Matteo Luciani +1
We introduce methodology to bridge scenario analysis and model-based risk forecasting, leveraging their respective strengths in policy settings. Our Bayesian framework addresses th…
stat.ME2025
Decision synthesis in monetary policy
Tony Chernis, Gary Koop, Emily Tallman +1
The macroeconomy is a sophisticated dynamic system involving significant uncertainties that complicate modelling. In response, decision-makers consider multiple models that provide…