9 papers
Extrapolating Volition with Recursive Information Markets
Abhimanyu Pallavi Sudhir, Long Tran-Thanh
One of the impediments to the efficiency of information markets is the inherent information asymmetry present in them, exacerbated by the "buyer's inspection paradox" (the buyer ca…
A Benchmark for Scalable Oversight Protocols
Abhimanyu Pallavi Sudhir, Jackson Kaunismaa, Arjun Panickssery
As AI agents surpass human capabilities, scalable oversight -- the problem of effectively supplying human feedback to potentially superhuman AI models -- becomes increasingly criti…
Market-based Architectures in RL and Beyond
Abhimanyu Pallavi Sudhir, Long Tran-Thanh
Market-based agents refer to reinforcement learning agents which determine their actions based on an internal market of sub-agents. We introduce a new type of market-based algorith…
Consistency Checks for Language Model Forecasters
Daniel Paleka, Abhimanyu Pallavi Sudhir, Alejandro Alvarez +4
Forecasting is a task that is difficult to evaluate: the ground truth can only be known in the future. Recent work showing LLM forecasters rapidly approaching human-level performan…
Betting on what is neither verifiable nor falsifiable
Abhimanyu Pallavi Sudhir, Long Tran-Thanh
Prediction markets are useful for estimating probabilities of claims whose truth will be revealed at some fixed time -- this includes questions about the values of real-world event…
A mathematical definition of property rights in a Debreu economy
Abhimanyu Pallavi Sudhir
We present mathematical definitions for rights structures, government and non-attenuation in a generalized N-person game (Debreu abstract economy), thus providing a formal basis fo…