11 citations · 29 across the 17 of their papers we have counts for
19 papers
Limits of Predictability in Civil Litigation
Sandro Claudio Lera, Shahrokh Firouzi, Jonathan Habshush +1
Lawyers, insurers, and litigation funders forecast how civil lawsuits will end, and legal theory distinguishes easy cases, in which the law determines the result, from hard cases,…
The Determinants of Judicial Promotion: Politics, Prestige, and Performance
Ilya Davidson, Sandro Claudio Lera, Robert Mahari
Judicial promotions shape the composition of higher courts, yet their determinants remain poorly understood. This paper examines promotion from U.S. District Courts to Courts of Ap…
HawkesRank: Event-Driven Centrality for Real-Time Importance Ranking
Didier Sornette, Yishan Luo, Sandro Claudio Lera
Quantifying influence in networks is important across science, economics, and public health, yet widely used centrality measures remain limited: they rely on static representations…
Why AI Alignment Failure Is Structural: Learned Human Interaction Structures and AGI as an Endogenous Evolutionary Shock
Didier Sornette, Sandro Claudio Lera, Ke Wu
Recent reports of large language models (LLMs) exhibiting behaviors such as deception, threats, or blackmail are often interpreted as evidence of alignment failure or emergent mali…
Strategic Network Abandonment
Sandro Claudio Lera, Andreas Haupt
Socio-economic networks, from cities and firms to collaborative projects, often appear resilient for long periods before experiencing rapid, cascading decline as participation erod…
Sensor optimization for urban wind estimation with cluster-based probabilistic framework
Yutong Liang, Chang Hou, Guy Y. Cornejo Maceda +8
We propose a physics-informed machine-learned framework for sensor-based flow estimation for drone trajectories in complex urban terrain. The input is a rich set of flow simulation…
Community-centric modeling of citation dynamics explains collective citation patterns in science, law, and patents
Sadamori Kojaku, Robert Mahari, Sandro Claudio Lera +3
Many human knowledge systems, such as science, law, and invention, are built on documents and the citations that link them. Citations, while serving multiple purposes, primarily fu…
Illusions of Criticality: Crises Without Tipping Points
Virgile Troude, Sandro Claudio Lera, Ke Wu +1
Abrupt shifts in ecosystems, brains, markets, and climate are often diagnosed as signs of approaching a tipping point, i.e. a critical bifurcation where stability is lost. Here we…
Early Career Citations Capture Judicial Idiosyncrasies and Predict Judgments
Robert Mahari, Sandro Claudio Lera
Judicial impartiality is a cornerstone of well-functioning legal systems. We assemble a dataset of 112,312 civil lawsuits in U.S. District Courts to study the effect of extraneous…
Data-Driven Law Firm Rankings to Reduce Information Asymmetry in Legal Disputes
Alexandre Mojon, Robert Mahari, Sandro Claudio Lera
Selecting capable counsel can shape the outcome of litigation, yet evaluating law firm performance remains challenging. Widely used rankings prioritize prestige, size, and revenue…
Social feedback amplifies emotional language in online video live chats
Yishan Luo, Didier Sornette, Sandro Claudio Lera
A growing share of human interactions now occurs online, where the expression and perception of emotions are often amplified and distorted. Yet, the interplay between different emo…
Non-Normal Interactions Create Socio-Economic Bubbles
Sornette Didier, Sandro Lera, Jianhong Lin +1
In social networks, bursts of activity often result from the imitative behavior between interacting agents. The Ising model, along with its variants in the social sciences, serves…
Uncovering Feature Interdependencies in High-Noise Environments with Stepwise Lookahead Decision Forests
Delilah Donick, Sandro Claudio Lera
Conventionally, random forests are built from "greedy" decision trees which each consider only one split at a time during their construction. The sub-optimality of greedy implement…
Ordinal Tax To Sustain a Digital Economy
Nate Dwyer, Sandro Claudio Lera, Alex Sandy Pentland
Recently, the French Senate approved a law that imposes a 3% tax on revenue generated from digital services by companies above a certain size. While there is a lot of political deb…
A Theory of Discrete Hierarchies as Optimal Cost-Adjusted Productivity Organisations
Sandro Claudio Lera, Didier Sornette
Hierarchical structures are ubiquitous in human and animal societies, but a fundamental understanding of their raison d'être has been lacking. Here, we present a general theory in…
Prediction and Prevention of Disproportionally Dominant Agents in Complex Networks
Sandro Lera, Alex 'Sandy' Pentland, Didier Sornette
We develop an early warning system and subsequent optimal intervention policy to avoid the formation of disproportional dominance (`winner-takes-all') in growing complex networks.…
GDP growth rates as confined Lévy flights
Sandro Claudio Lera, Didier Sornette
A new model that combines economic growth rate fluctuations at the microscopic and macroscopic level is presented. At the microscopic level, firms are growing at different rates wh…
Secular bipolar growth rate of the real US GDP per capita: implications for understanding past and future economic growth
Sandro Lera, Didier Sornette
We present a quantitative characterisation of the fluctuations of the annualized growth rate of the real US GDP per capita growth at many scales, using a wavelet transform analysis…
Currency target zone modeling: An interplay between physics and economics
Sandro Claudio Lera, Didier Sornette
We study the performance of the euro/Swiss franc exchange rate in the extraordinary period from September 6, 2011 and January 15, 2015 when the Swiss National Bank enforced a minim…