2 papers
physics.soc-ph2025
Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Process for Horse Race Betting: A Micro-Macro Analysis of Herding and Informed Bettors
Tomoya Sugawara, Shintaro Mori
We model the time evolution of single win odds in Japanese horse racing as a stochastic process, deriving an Ornstein--Uhlenbeck process by analyzing the probability dynamics of vo…
q-fin.RM2025
Phase transition in a long-memory log-Gaussian Cox process
Masato Hisakado, Shintaro Mori
We study a stochastic point process with power-law temporal correlations driven by hidden variables. We show that a generalized Merton-type model under an exponential-tail asset as…