48 citations · 102 across the 15 of their papers we have counts for
3 papers · 1 filter
ForecastBench: A Dynamic Benchmark of AI Forecasting Capabilities
Ezra Karger, Houtan Bastani, Chen Yueh-Han +4
Forecasts of future events are essential inputs into informed decision-making. Machine learning (ML) systems have the potential to deliver forecasts at scale, but there is no frame…
Approaching Human-Level Forecasting with Language Models
Danny Halawi, Fred Zhang, Chen Yueh-Han +1
Forecasting future events is important for policy and decision making. In this work, we study whether language models (LMs) can forecast at the level of competitive human forecaste…
Adaptive Regret for Bandits Made Possible: Two Queries Suffice
Zhou Lu, Qiuyi Zhang, Xinyi Chen +3
Fast changing states or volatile environments pose a significant challenge to online optimization, which needs to perform rapid adaptation under limited observation. In this paper,…