14 papers
A Benchmark for Electrical Load Forecasting Across Grid Levels: Time-Series Transformers Outperform Established Methods
Matthias Hertel, Sebastian Pütz, Jonathan Kolar +3
Accurate load forecasting at multiple grid levels is essential for future smart grids, ranging from aggregated control area forecasts for balancing supply and demand to forecasts o…
Probabilistic Low-Voltage Peak Load Forecasting with Time Series Foundation Models Evaluated on Application-Oriented Metrics
Benedikt Kaas, Manuel Treutlein, Hannes Benedikt Gerber +5
Low-voltage load forecasting is an important component in current and future energy systems with a high degree of electrification and decentralized generation. However, current for…
Explainable Load Forecasting with Covariate-Informed Time Series Foundation Models
Matthias Hertel, Alexandra Nikoltchovska, Sebastian Pütz +3
Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) have recently emerged as general-purpose forecasting models and show considerable potential for applications in energy systems. However, appli…
Energy-Arena: A Dynamic Benchmark for Operational Energy Forecasting
Max Kleinebrahm, Jonathan Berrisch, Philipp Eiser +11
Energy forecasting research faces a persistent comparability gap that makes it difficult to measure consistent progress over time. Reported accuracy gains are often not directly co…
Stochastic Model Predictive Control based on Mixed Random Variables for Economic Energy Management
Janik Pinter, Maximilian Beichter, Ralf Mikut +2
Optimal scheduling of batteries has significant potential to reduce electricity costs and to enhance grid resilience. However, effective battery scheduling must account for both ph…
Knowledge Distillation for Efficient Transformer-Based Reinforcement Learning in Hardware-Constrained Energy Management Systems
Pascal Henrich, Jonas Sievers, Maximilian Beichter +3
Transformer-based reinforcement learning has emerged as a strong candidate for sequential control in residential energy management. In particular, the Decision Transformer can lear…