1.9k citations · 14.9k across the 75 of their papers we have counts for
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Stochastic social behavior coupled to COVID-19 dynamics leads to waves, plateaus and an endemic state
Alexei V. Tkachenko, Sergei Maslov, Tong Wang +3
It is well recognized that population heterogeneity plays an important role in the spread of epidemics. While individual variations in social activity are often assumed to be persi…
Time-dependent heterogeneity leads to transient suppression of the COVID-19 epidemic, not herd immunity
Alexei V. Tkachenko, Sergei Maslov, Ahmed Elbanna +3
Epidemics generally spread through a succession of waves that reflect factors on multiple timescales. On short timescales, super-spreading events lead to burstiness and overdispers…
Modeling COVID-19 dynamics in Illinois under non-pharmaceutical interventions
George N. Wong, Zachary J. Weiner, Alexei V. Tkachenko +3
We present modeling of the COVID-19 epidemic in Illinois, USA, capturing the implementation of a Stay-at-Home order and scenarios for its eventual release. We use a non-Markovian a…