4 citations · 6 across the 8 of their papers we have counts for
5 papers · 1 filter
Probabilistic measures afford fair comparisons of AIWP and NWP model output
Tilmann Gneiting, Tobias Biegert, Kristof Kraus +3
We introduce a new measure for fair and meaningful comparisons of single-valued output from artificial intelligence based weather prediction (AIWP) and numerical weather prediction…
Probabilistic intraday electricity price forecasting using generative machine learning
Jieyu Chen, Sebastian Lerch, Melanie Schienle +2
The growing importance of intraday electricity trading in Europe calls for improved price forecasting and tailored decision-support tools. In this paper, we propose a novel generat…
Improving Model Chain Approaches for Probabilistic Solar Energy Forecasting through Post-processing and Machine Learning
Nina Horat, Sina Klerings, Sebastian Lerch
Weather forecasts from numerical weather prediction models play a central role in solar energy forecasting, where a cascade of physics-based models is used in a model chain approac…
Comparison of Model Output Statistics and Neural Networks to Postprocess Wind Gusts
Cristina Primo, Benedikt Schulz, Sebastian Lerch +1
Wind gust prediction plays an important role in warning strategies of national meteorological services due to the high impact of its extreme values. However, forecasting wind gusts…
Direction Augmentation in the Evaluation of Armed Conflict Predictions
Johannes Bracher, Lotta Rüter, Fabian Krüger +2
In many forecasting settings, there is a specific interest in predicting the sign of an outcome variable correctly in addition to its magnitude. For instance, when forecasting arme…