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physics.ao-ph2026
ArchesClimate: Probabilistic Decadal Ensemble Generation With Flow Matching
Graham Clyne, Guillaume Couairon, Guillaume Gastineau +2
Internal variability is a dominant contributor to the uncertainty of predictions at the interannual to decadal timescale. A typical approach to separating the internal variability…
physics.ao-ph2026
STIPP: Space-time in situ postprocessing over the French Alps using proper scoring rules
David Landry, Isabelle Gouttevin, Hugo Merizen +2
We propose Space-time in situ postprocessing (STIPP), a machine learning model that generates spatio-temporally consistent weather forecasts for a network of station locations. Gri…
physics.ao-ph2025
Generating ensembles of spatially-coherent in-situ forecasts using flow matching
David Landry, Claire Monteleoni, Anastase Charantonis
We propose a machine-learning-based methodology for in-situ weather forecast postprocessing that is both spatially coherent and multivariate. Compared to previous work, our Flow MA…