3 papers
stat.OT2025
Next-Generation Conflict Forecasting: Unleashing Predictive Patterns through Spatiotemporal Learning
Simon P. von der Maase
Forecasting violent conflict at high spatial and temporal resolution remains a central challenge for both researchers and policymakers. This study presents a novel neural network a…
stat.ML2025
The Currents of Conflict: Decomposing Conflict Trends with Gaussian Processes
Simon P. von der Maase
I present a novel approach to estimating the temporal and spatial patterns of violent conflict. I show how we can use highly temporally and spatially disaggregated data on conflict…
cs.CY2025
From Newswire to Nexus: Using text-based actor embeddings and transformer networks to forecast conflict dynamics
Mihai Croicu, Simon Polichinel von der Maase
This study advances the field of conflict forecasting by using text-based actor embeddings with transformer models to predict dynamic changes in violent conflict patterns at the ac…