most citedThe Assessment and Calibration of Ensemble Seasonal Forecasts of Equatorial Pacific Ocean Temperature and the Predictability of Uncertainty

7 citations · 7 across the 1 of their papers we have counts for

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physics.ao-ph2008★ 8 cited

Towards the Probabilistic Earth-System Model

T. N. Palmer, F. J. Doblas-Reyes, A. Weisheimer +3

Multi-model ensembles provide a pragmatic approach to the representation of model uncertainty in climate prediction. However, such representations are inherently ad hoc, and, as sh…

physics.ao-ph2003★ 7 cited

The Assessment and Calibration of Ensemble Seasonal Forecasts of Equatorial Pacific Ocean Temperature and the Predictability of Uncertainty

Stephen Jewson, Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Renate Hagedorn

We evaluate the performance of two 44 year ensemble seasonal hindcast time series for the Nino3 index produced as part of the DEMETER project. We show that the ensemble mean carrie…