9 papers
Time-Varying Multi-Seasonal ARMA Models
Ganna Fagerberg, Mattias Villani, Robert Kohn
We propose an ARMA model that allows for multiple seasonal periods and time varying parameters in both regular and seasonal components, building upon previous work for pure AR proc…
Spectral subsampling MCMC for Lévy-driven continuous-time ARMA models with expensive likelihood contributions
Thomas Goodwin, Matias Quiroz, Robert Kohn +1
Subsampling-based Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms aim to accelerate Bayesian inference by evaluating the likelihood using only a subset of the data at each iteration. Ho…
Dynamic linear regression models for forecasting time series with semi long memory errors
Thomas Goodwin, Matias Quiroz, Robert Kohn
Dynamic linear regression models forecast the values of a time series based on a linear combination of a set of exogenous time series while incorporating a time series process for…
Analysing symbolic data by pseudo-marginal methods
Yu Yang, Matias Quiroz, Boris Beranger +2
Symbolic data analysis (SDA) aggregates large individual-level datasets into a small number of distributional summaries, such as random rectangles or random histograms. The inferen…
Calibrated Generalized Bayesian Inference
David T. Frazier, Christopher Drovandi, Robert Kohn
We propose a simple approach that provides accurate uncertainty quantification for Bayesian inference in misspecified or approximate models, and for generalized (Gibbs) posteriors.…
Time-Varying Multi-Seasonal AR Models
Ganna Fagerberg, Mattias Villani, Robert Kohn
We propose a seasonal AR model with time-varying parameter processes in both the regular and seasonal parameters. The model is parameterized to guarantee stability at every time po…