6 papers
Hard conservation correctors can hide a degrading model when training autoregressive emulators
William E. Chapman, John Schreck, Yingkai Sha
AI weather and climate emulators increasingly incorporate physical principles into their formulation. One approach is to apply hard correctors that modify network outputs so that g…
Conditional Tropical Cyclogenesis Rates via Rare-Event Sampling in a Neural Weather Emulator
John S. Schreck, William Chapman, Charlie Becker +1
We couple Forward Flux Sampling (FFS), a non-equilibrium rare-event technique from statistical mechanics, to a neural weather emulator (SDL-WXFormer, 1° grid spacing) to estimate…
Controllable Probabilistic Forecasting with Stochastic Decomposition Layers
John S. Schreck, William E. Chapman, Charlie Becker +6
AI weather prediction ensembles with latent noise injection and optimized with the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) have produced both accurate and well-calibrated predic…
Investigating the use of terrain-following coordinates in AI-driven precipitation forecasts
Yingkai Sha, John S. Schreck, William Chapman +1
Artificial Intelligence (AI) weather prediction (AIWP) models often produce ``blurry'' precipitation forecasts. This study presents a novel solution to tackle this problem -- integ…
CAMulator: Fast Emulation of the Community Atmosphere Model
William E. Chapman, John S. Schreck, Yingkai Sha +5
We introduce CAMulator version 1, an auto-regressive machine-learned (ML) emulator of the Community Atmosphere Model version 6 (CAM6) that simulates the next atmospheric state give…
Improving AI weather prediction models using global mass and energy conservation schemes
Yingkai Sha, John S. Schreck, William Chapman +1
Artificial Intelligence (AI) weather prediction (AIWP) models are powerful tools for medium-range forecasts but often lack physical consistency, leading to outputs that violate con…