10 citations · 58 across the 46 of their papers we have counts for
48 papers
Relegation, promotion and the components of scoring in water polo
Manuele Leonelli
Relegation, not the championship, decides the outcome of many European water polo leagues: one club has won every recent national title in Italy, Spain and Hungary. We make the rel…
How exceptional was the Big Three era? Extremes and persistence in men's professional tennis
Manuele Leonelli
Three players won 66 of the 81 Grand Slam titles contested between 2003 and 2023, and their era is widely held to be the most dominant in the history of tennis. Assessing it means…
Tail Dependence in EU Carbon Markets: Graphical Models of Extremes for EUA Futures
Jan Maciejowski, Manuele Leonelli
Understanding how extreme price movements propagate across financial and energy markets is critical for risk management and regulatory design in the EU Emissions Trading System (EU…
Crashing Together, Rallying Apart: Dynamic Conditional Tail Dependence in Cryptocurrency Markets
Rama Siva Sarwari Mallela, Manuele Leonelli
Cryptocurrency markets are prone to violent, synchronised drawdowns, challenging the claim that a basket of crypto-assets offers genuine internal diversification. Because standard…
Beyond Post-hoc Explanation: Toward Glassbox AI via Probabilistic Mediation
Manuele Leonelli
Large language models are rapidly becoming infrastructural components in high-stakes institutional settings, including public administration, legal reasoning, and healthcare, where…
Estimating Staged Event Tree Models via Hierarchical Clustering on the Simplex
Muhammad Shoaib, Eva Riccomagno, Manuele Leonelli +1
Staged tree models enhance Bayesian networks by incorporating context-specific dependencies through a stage-based structure. In this study, we present a new framework for estimatin…
Bayesian Causal Effect Estimation for Categorical Data using Staged Tree Models
Andrea Cremaschi, Manuele Leonelli, Gherardo Varando
We propose a fully Bayesian approach for causal inference with multivariate categorical data based on staged tree models, a class of probabilistic graphical models capable of repre…
Staged Event Trees for Transparent Treatment Effect Estimation
Gherardo Varando, Manuele Leonelli, Jordi Cerdà-Bautista +2
Average and conditional treatment effects are fundamental causal quantities used to evaluate the effectiveness of treatments in various critical applications, including clinical se…
Modeling Psychological Profiles in Volleyball via Mixed-Type Bayesian Networks
Maria Iannario, Dae-Jin Lee, Manuele Leonelli
Psychological attributes rarely operate in isolation: coaches reason about networks of related traits. We analyze a new dataset of 164 female volleyball players from Italy's C and…
Understanding support for AI regulation: A Bayesian network perspective
Andrea Cremaschi, Dae-Jin Lee, Manuele Leonelli
As artificial intelligence (AI) becomes increasingly embedded in public and private life, understanding how citizens perceive its risks, benefits, and regulatory needs is essential…
Disentangling Spatial and Structural Drivers of Housing Prices through Bayesian Networks: A Case Study of Madrid, Barcelona, and Valencia
Alvaro Garcia Murga, Manuele Leonelli
Understanding how housing prices respond to spatial accessibility, structural attributes, and typological distinctions is central to contemporary urban research and policy. In citi…
Uncovering Drivers of EU Carbon Futures with Bayesian Networks
Jan Maciejowski, Manuele Leonelli
The European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) is a key policy tool for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and advancing toward a net-zero economy. Under this scheme, tradeabl…
Will AI Take My Job? Evolving Perceptions of Automation and Labor Risk in Latin America
Andrea Cremaschi, Dae-Jin Lee, Manuele Leonelli
As artificial intelligence and robotics increasingly reshape the global labor market, understanding public perceptions of these technologies becomes critical. We examine how these…
Predicting and understanding shooting performance in professional biathlon: A Bayesian approach
Manuele Leonelli
Biathlon is a unique winter sport that combines precision rifle marksmanship with the endurance demands of cross-country skiing. We develop a Bayesian hierarchical model to predict…
bnRep: A repository of Bayesian networks from the academic literature
Manuele Leonelli
Bayesian networks (BNs) are widely used for modeling complex systems with uncertainty, yet repositories of pre-built BNs remain limited. This paper introduces bnRep, an open-source…
The diameter of a stochastic matrix: A new measure for sensitivity analysis in Bayesian networks
Manuele Leonelli, Jim Q. Smith, Sophia K. Wright
Bayesian networks are one of the most widely used classes of probabilistic models for risk management and decision support because of their interpretability and flexibility in incl…
Global Sensitivity Analysis of Uncertain Parameters in Bayesian Networks
Rafael Ballester-Ripoll, Manuele Leonelli
Traditionally, the sensitivity analysis of a Bayesian network studies the impact of individually modifying the entries of its conditional probability tables in a one-at-a-time (OAT…
Learning Staged Trees from Incomplete Data
Jack Storror Carter, Manuele Leonelli, Eva Riccomagno +1
Staged trees are probabilistic graphical models capable of representing any class of non-symmetric independence via a coloring of its vertices. Several structural learning routines…
Context-Specific Refinements of Bayesian Network Classifiers
Manuele Leonelli, Gherardo Varando
Supervised classification is one of the most ubiquitous tasks in machine learning. Generative classifiers based on Bayesian networks are often used because of their interpretabilit…
An analysis of factors impacting team strengths in the Australian Football League using time-variant Bradley-Terry models
Carlos Rafael Gonzalez Soffner, Manuele Leonelli
Australian Rules Football is a field invasion game where two teams attempt to score the highest points to win. Complex machine learning algorithms have been developed to predict ma…
Staged trees for discrete longitudinal data
Jack Storror Carter, Manuele Leonelli, Eva Riccomagno +1
In this paper we investigate the use of staged tree models for discrete longitudinal data. Staged trees are a type of probabilistic graphical model for finite sample space processe…
Robust learning of staged tree models: A case study in evaluating transport services
Manuele Leonelli, Gherardo Varando
Staged trees are a relatively recent class of probabilistic graphical models that extend Bayesian networks to formally and graphically account for non-symmetric patterns of depende…
Using Staged Tree Models for Health Data: Investigating Invasive Fungal Infections by Aspergillus and Other Filamentous Fungi
Maria Teresa Filigheddu, Manuele Leonelli, Gherardo Varando +4
Machine learning models are increasingly used in the medical domain to study the association between risk factors and diseases to support practitioners in predicting health outcome…
AI and the creative realm: A short review of current and future applications
Fabio Crimaldi, Manuele Leonelli
This study explores the concept of creativity and artificial intelligence (AI) and their recent integration. While AI has traditionally been perceived as incapable of generating ne…