A minimal stochastic model for influenza evolution

Abstract

We introduce and discuss a minimal individual-based model for influenza dynamics. The model takes into account the effects of specific immunization against viral strains, but also infectivity randomness and the presence of a short-lived strain transcending immunity recently suggested in the literature. We show by simulations that the resulting model exhibits substitution of viral strains along the years, but that their divergence remains bounded. We also show that dropping any of these features results in a drastically different behavior, leading either to the extinction of the disease, to the proliferation of the viral strains, or to their divergence.

References in corpus (2)

• A Simple Model of Epidemics with Pathogen Mutation
• Co-Evolution of quasispecies: B-cell mutation rates maximize viral error catastrophes

Cited by in corpus (7)

• Stochastic resetting antiviral therapies prevents drug resistance development
• Modeling influenza-like illnesses through composite compartmental models
• Modeling microevolution in a changing environment: The evolving quasispecies and the Diluted Champion Process
• Analysis of symmetries in models of multi-strain infections
• Dynamical correlations in the escape strategy of Influenza A virus
• Size and structure of an epistatic space
• Short-term heterologous immunity after severe influenza A outbreaks