Towards the Observation of Signal over Background in Future Experiments

Abstract

We propose a method to estimate the probability of new physics discovery in future high energy physics experiments. Physics simulation gives both the average numbers $<N_b>$ of background and $<N_s>$ of signal events. We find that the proper definition of the significance for $<N_b>,<N_s>\gg 1$ is $S_{12}=\sqrt{<N_s>+<N_b>}-\sqrt{<N_b>}$ in comparison with often used significances $S_1=<N_s>/\sqrt{<N_b>}$ and $S_2=<N_s>/\sqrt{<N_s>+<N_b>}$. We also propose a method for taking into account the systematical errors related to nonexact knowledge of background and signal cross sections. An account of such systematics is very essential in the search for supersymmetry at LHC.

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