Hidden Forces and Fluctuations from Moving Averages: A Test Study

Abstract

The possibility that price dynamics is affected by its distance from a moving average has been recently introduced as new statistical tool. The purpose is to identify the tendency of the price dynamics to be attractive or repulsive with respect to its own moving average. We consider a number of tests for various models which clarify the advantages and limitations of this new approach. The analysis leads to the identification of an effective potential with respect to the moving average. Its specific implementation requires a detailed consideration of various effects which can alter the statistical methods used. However, the study of various model systems shows that this approach is indeed suitable to detect hidden forces in the market which go beyond usual correlations and volatility clustering.

6 pages, 13 figures

References in corpus (1)

• Roughness and Finite Size Effect in the NYSE Stock-Price Fluctuations

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• Characterization of foreign exchange market using the threshold-dealer-model
• Mechanisms of Self-Organization and Finite Size Effects in a Minimal Agent Based Model
• Minimal Agent Based Model For The Origin And Self-Organization Of Stylized Facts In Financial Markets