Is There a Real-Estate Bubble in the US?
arXiv:physics/0506027 · doi:10.1016/j.physa.2005.06.098
Abstract
We analyze the quarterly average sale prices of new houses sold in the USA as a whole, in the northeast, midwest, south, and west of the USA, in each of the 50 states and the District of Columbia of the USA, to determine whether they have grown faster-than-exponential which we take as the diagnostic of a bubble. We find that 22 states (mostly Northeast and West) exhibit clear-cut signatures of a fast growing bubble. From the analysis of the S&P 500 Home Index, we conclude that the turning point of the bubble will probably occur around mid-2006.
7 Elsaet Latex pages + 9 eps figures
Cited by in corpus (28)
- Multifractal analysis of financial markets
- Multiscale characteristics of the emerging global cryptocurrency market
- Bubble Diagnosis and Prediction of the 2005-2007 and 2008-2009 Chinese stock market bubbles
- A Stable and Robust Calibration Scheme of the Log-Periodic Power Law Model
- Systemic risk and spatiotemporal dynamics of the US housing market
- Clarifications to Questions and Criticisms on the Johansen-Ledoit-Sornette Bubble Model
- Analysis of the real estate market in Las Vegas: Bubble, seasonal patterns, and prediction of the CSW indexes
- A Roof over your Head; House Price Peaks in the UK and Ireland
- Random walker in a temporally deforming higher-order potential forces observed in financial crisis
- Detection of Chinese Stock Market Bubbles with LPPLS Confidence Indicator
- Market bubbles and crashes
- Impact of Unexpected Events, Shocking News and Rumours on Foreign Exchange Market Dynamics
- The 2020 Global Stock Market Crash: Endogenous or Exogenous?
- Financial Bubbles, Real Estate bubbles, Derivative Bubbles, and the Financial and Economic Crisis
- Club Convergence of House Prices: Evidence from China's Ten Key Cities
- Symmetric thermal optimal path and time-dependent lead-lag relationship: Novel statistical tests and application to UK and US real-estate and monetary policies
- Extracting the exponential behaviors in the market data
- Forecasting Financial Extremes: A Network Degree Measure of Super-exponential Growth
- Note on log-periodic description of 2008 financial crash
- Diagnosis and Prediction of Tipping Points in Financial Markets: Crashes and Rebounds
- Bubble burst as jamming phase transition
- Self-reinforcing feedback loop in financial markets with coupling of market impact and momentum traders
- Diagnosis and Prediction of the 2015 Chinese Stock Market Bubble
- Physics and Financial Economics (1776-2014): Puzzles, Ising and Agent-Based models
- The 'COVID' Crash of the 2020 U.S. Stock Market
- Real estate price peaks: a comparative overview
- How to grow a bubble: A model of myopic adapting agents
- Testing for rational speculative bubbles in the Brazilian residential real-estate market