Influence of information flow in the formation of economic cycles

Abstract

A microscopic approach to macroeconomic features is intended. A model for macroeconomic behavior based on the Ausloos-Clippe-Pekalski model is built and investigated. The influence of a discrete time information transfer is investigated. The formation of economic cycles is observed as a function of the time of information delay. Three regions of delay time are recognized: short $t_d\in (2IS,4IS)$ (IS - iteration steps) - the system evolves toward a unique stable equilibrium state, medium $t_d=5IS$ or $t_d=6IS$, the system undergoes oscillations: stable concentration cycles appear in the system. For long information flow delay times, $t_d\ge 7$, the systems may crash for most initial concentrations. However, even in the case of long delay time the crash time may be long enough to allow observation of the system evolution and to introduce an appropriate strategy in order to avoid the collapse of the e.g. company concentration. In the long time delay it is also possible to observe an "economy resonance" where despite a long delay time the system evolves for a long time or can even reach a stable state, which insures its existence.

18 pages,16 figures, to be published in Verhulst 200 Proceedings, M. Ausloos and M. Dirickx, Eds. (in press)

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