Recurrence intervals between earthquakes strongly depend on history

V. Livina; S. Tuzov; S. Havlin; A. Bunde

doi:10.1016/j.physa.2004.08.032

paper

Recurrence intervals between earthquakes strongly depend on history

arXiv:physics/0410274 · doi:10.1016/j.physa.2004.08.032

Abstract

We study the statistics of the recurrence times between earthquakes above a certain magnitude M $in C a l i f or nia . W e f in d t ha tt h e d i s t r ib u t i o n o f t h er ec u r r e n ce t im ess t r o n g l y d e p e n d so n t h e p r e v i o u sr ec u r r e n ce t im e$ τ_0 $. A s a co n se q u e n ce, t h eco n d i t i o na l m e an r ec u r r e n ce t im e$ \hat τ(τ_0) $b e tw ee n tw oe v e n t s in cr e a ses m o n o t o ni c a l l y w i t h$ τ_0 $. F or$ τ_0 $w e l l b e l o w t h e a v er a g er ec u r r e n ce t im e$ \ovτ, \hatτ(τ_0) $i ss ma l l er t han$ \ovτ $, w hi l e f or$ τ_0>\ovτ $,$ \hatτ(τ_0) $i s g r e a t er t han$ \ovτ $. A l so t h e m e an r es i d u a l t im e u n t i l t h e n e x t e a r t h q u ak e d oes n o t d e p e n d o n l y o n t h ee l a p se d t im e, b u t a l sos t r o n g l y o n$ τ_0 $. T h e l a r g er$ τ_0$ is, the larger is the mean residual time. The above features should be taken into account in any earthquake prognosis.

arXiv comment5 pages, 3 figures, submitted to Physica A

Recurrence intervals between earthquakes strongly depend on history

Abstract

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