Spatial correlations in SIR epidemic models

Abstract

We investigate the role of global mixing in epidemic processes. We first construct a simplified model of the SIR epidemic using a realistic population distribution. Using this model, we examine possible mechanisms for destruction of spatial correlations, in an attempt to produce correlation curves similar to those reported recently for real epidemiological data. We find that introduction of a long-range interaction destroys spatial correlations very easily if neighbourhood sizes are homogeneous. For inhomogeneous neighbourhoods, very strong long-range coupling is required to achieve a similar effect.

6 pages, 4 figures