New Evidence of Earthquake Precursory Phenomena in the 17 Jan. 1995 Kobe Earthquake, Japan

Abstract

Significant advances, both in the theoretical understanding of rupture processes in heterogeneous media and in the methodology for characterizing critical behavior, allows us to reanalyze the evidence for criticality and especially log-periodicity in the previously reported chemical anomalies that preceded the Kobe earthquake. The ion ($C{l}^{-}$, $K^{+}$, $M{g}^{++}$, $N{O}_3^{-}$ and $S{O}_4^{--}$) concentrations of ground-water issued from deep wells located near the epicenter of the 1995 Kobe earthquake are taken as proxies for the cumulative damage preceding the earthquake. Using both a parametric and non-parametric analysis, the five data sets are compared extensively to synthetic time series. The null-hypothesis that the patterns documented on these times series result from noise decorating a simple power law is rejected with a very high confidence level.

8 pages and 2 figures submitted to GRL

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