Are Financial Crashes Predictable?

Abstract

We critically review recent claims that financial crashes can be predicted using the idea of log-periodic oscillations or by other methods inspired by the physics of critical phenomena. In particular, the October 1997 `correction' does not appear to be the accumulation point of a geometric series of local minima.

LaTeX, 5 pages + 1 postscript figure

References in corpus (3)

• Log-periodic Oscillations for Biased Diffusion in 3D Random Lattices
• Renormalization Group Analysis of October Market Crashes
• The sharp peak-flat trough pattern and critical speculation

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• Note on log-periodic description of 2008 financial crash
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