Predictability of Self-Organizing Systems

Abstract

We study the predictability of large events in self-organizing systems. We focus on a set of models which have been studied as analogs of earthquake faults and fault systems, and apply methods based on techniques which are of current interest in seismology. In all cases we find detectable correlations between precursory smaller events and the large events we aim to forecast. We compare predictions based on different patterns of precursory events and find that for all of the models a new precursor based on the spatial distribution of activity outperforms more traditional measures based on temporal variations in the local activity.

15 pages, plain.tex with special macros included, 4 figures

Cited by in corpus (11)

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• Self-Organized Criticality and Universality in a Nonconservative Earthquake Model
• Transient and stationary behavior of the Olami-Feder-Christensen earthquake model
• Power Laws, Precursors and Predictability During Failure
• A way to synchronize models with seismic faults for earthquake forecasting: Insights from a simple stochastic model
• Some Properties of Sandpile Models as Prototype of Self-Organized Critical Systems
• Prediction in a driven-dissipative system displaying a continuous phase transition
• Coupled mechano-electrokinetic Burridge-Knopoff model of fault sliding events and transient geoelectric signals