Simple tools for extrapolations of human mortality in rich countries
arXiv:cond-mat/0204306
Abstract
Suitable assumptions for the Gompertz mortality law take into account the break in the time development observed recently by Wilmoth et al. They show how a drastic reduction in the birth rate and improved living conditions lead to a drastic increase in the fraction of old people in the population, and how immigration of half a percent of the population per year can mostly stop this increase.
Not only a contribution to the German federal elections; 5 pages incl.figs