Possibility between earthquake and explosion seismogram differentiation by discrete stochastic non-Markov processes and local Hurst exponent analysis

Abstract

The basic purpose of the paper is to draw the attention of researchers to new possibilities of differentiation of similar signals having different nature. One of examples of such kind of signals is presented by seismograms containing recordings of earthquakes (EQ's) and technogenic explosions (TE's). We propose here a discrete stochastic model for possible solution of a problem of strong EQ's forecasting and differentiation of TE's from the weak EQ's. Theoretical analysis is performed by two independent methods: with the use of statistical theory of discrete non-Markov stochastic processes (Phys. Rev. E62,6178 (2000)) and the local Hurst exponent. Time recordings of seismic signals of the first four dynamic orthogonal collective variables, six various plane of phase portrait of four dimensional phase space of orthogonal variables and the local Hurst exponent have been calculated for the dynamic analysis of the earth states. The approaches, permitting to obtain an algorithm of strong EQ's forecasting and to differentiate TE's from weak EQ's, have been developed.

REVTEX +12 ps and jpg figures. Accepted for publication in Phys. Rev. E, December 2001

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