Mean Accuracy Is the Wrong Estimand for a Release Decision

Abstract

A release decision about a fine-tuned model is an operational commitment about the \emph{next} rerun of its training recipe. Yet standard benchmark reporting gives only the mean accuracy of past seeds. These target fundamentally different questions: release decisions depend on catastrophic tail risk, whereas standard evaluation reports only central tendency. Because fine-tuning induces bimodal mode collapse, high average accuracy frequently conceals severe failure rates. Auditing $2124$ fine-tuned models across eleven language models, we show that shipping models based on mean accuracy violates a $10\%$ deployment failure budget $48.0\%$ of the time. Common heuristics like $\bar{b}-2\sigma$ prove equally dangerous: by underestimating variance on small samples, they become most permissive when evidence is weakest. We introduce \textbf{recipe cards}, an evaluation framework that directly certifies rerun tail failure rates using exact finite-sample binomial bounds. Recipe cards reduce held-out budget violations to $0.6\%$, enforce a mathematical sample floor ($N\ge 22$) that prevents certification on thin evidence, and explicitly refuse unverified claims under domain and task shifts.