Single-Sample Prophet Inequalities: A Combinatorial to Single-Item Reduction

Abstract

We study single-sample prophet inequalities for online combinatorial allocation. Our main contribution is a general reduction from combinatorial to single-item prophet inequalities for valuation classes admitting suitable supporting prices. The reduction uses a free-disposal value to separate buyer-side combinatorial constraints from item-side supply constraints, yielding a modular framework that applies in the stronger Game of Googol model. This framework yields a $\frac{1}{6\sqrt{3}}\approx \frac{1}{10.4}$-competitive single-sample prophet inequality and a $({\beta }_{k-1}/4)$-competitive $k$-sample prophet inequality for XOS valuations, where ${\beta }_k$ is the competitive ratio of a $k$-sample single-item prophet inequality, improving upon the work of [DKL+24]. Both results extend directly to divisible resources with capped-XOS valuations. Along the way, we obtain new results for online free disposal and an optimal single-sample prophet inequality for fractional knapsack in the Game of Googol model.